Trade policy sensitivity and global stock returns: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election

Dien Giau Bui, Iftekhar Hasan, Chih-Yung Lin, Ngoc Thuy Mai and Chris Vaike

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2025, vol. 178, issue C

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify firms’ sensitivity to shifts in bilateral trade flows between the United States and its trading partners. We exploit the 2016 U.S. presidential election as an exogenous shock to trade policy expectations and assess the stock market reactions of firms across 52 countries. Our findings indicate that firms with higher trade policy sensitivity experienced significantly more negative stock returns surrounding the election. These results are robust to variations in event windows, return model specifications, and alternative estimations of trade policy sensitivity.

Keywords: Trade policy sensitivity; Stock returns; Bilateral trade flows; Global firms; Presidential elections JEL Codes: F13, F23, G14, G15, G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001372

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107517

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