Media tone is a priced risk factor in currency markets

Heikki Lehkonen, Kari Heimonen and Kuntara Pukthuanthong

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2025, vol. 180, issue C

Abstract: Media tone constructed from 7000,000 articles from 2000 global media and 800 social media sites is found to be a genuine risk factor that cross-sectionally prices currencies. It can predict excess US dollar returns for up to six months and surpasses the no-change benchmark in predicting returns out of sample. Its predicted value contains information beyond those predicted by currency factors and business cycles. Evidence corroborates with the theory that Media tone increases investment returns, has pronounced predictive power for the currencies associated with hard-to-value characteristics, and that its predictive power increases with the number of news sources. Trading of rational investors, including banks, is associated with Media tone.

Keywords: Media tone; Textual analysis; Exchange rates; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G12 G14 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001621

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107542

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