Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates in the UK

Ólan Henry

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2009, vol. 33, issue 2, 405-414

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between UK equity returns and short-term interest rates using a two regime Markov-Switching EGARCH model. The results suggest one high-return, low variance regime within which the conditional variance of equity returns responds persistently but symmetrically to equity return innovations. In the other, low-mean, high variance, regime equity volatility responds asymmetrically and without persistence to shocks to equity returns. There is evidence of a regime dependent relationship between shorter maturity interest rate differentials and equity return volatility. Furthermore, there is evidence that events in the money markets influence the probability of transition across regimes.

Keywords: Regime; switching; Time-varying; transition; probabilities; Interest; rate; spreads (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:405-414

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