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Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis

Daniel Rittler

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2012, vol. 36, issue 3, 774-785

Abstract: This paper models the relationship of European Union Allowance spot- and futures-prices within the second commitment period of the European Union emissions trading scheme. Based on high-frequency data, we analyze the transmission of information in first and second conditional moments. To reveal long-run price discovery, we compute common factor weights of Schwarz and Szakmary (1994) and information shares of Hasbrouck (1995) based on estimated coefficients of a VECM. To analyze the short-run dynamics, we perform Granger-causality tests. We identify the futures market to be the leader of the long-run price discovery process, whereas the informational role of the futures market increases over time. In addition, we employ a version of the UECCC-GARCH model as introduced by Conrad and Karanasos (2010) to analyze the volatility transmission structure. The volatility analysis indicates a close relationship between the volatility dynamics of both markets, whereas in particular we observe spillovers from the futures to the spot market. As a whole the investigation reveals that the futures market incorporates information first and then transfers the information to the spot market.

Keywords: CO2 emission allowances; Volatility transmission; Spot and futures prices; Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G13 G14 G15 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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