Economics at your fingertips  

State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?

Yufeng Han

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2012, vol. 36, issue 9, 2575-2592

Abstract: We propose a novel Bayesian framework to incorporate uncertainty about the state of the market. Among others, one advantage of the framework is the ability to model a large collection of time-varying parameters simultaneously. When we apply the framework to estimate the cost of equity we find economically significant effects of state uncertainty. A state-independent pricing model overestimates the cost of equity by about 4% per annum for a utility firm and by as much as 3% for industries. We also observe that the expected return, volatility, risk loading, and pricing error all display state-dependent dynamics that coincide with the business cycle. More interestingly, the forecasted market and Fama–French factor risk premiums can predict the future real GDP growth rate even though the model does not use any macroeconomic variables, which suggests that the proposed Bayesian framework captures the state-dependent dynamics well.

Keywords: Cost of capital; Time-varying parameters; State uncertainty; Dirichlet process; Bayesian analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G31 C11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Banking & Finance is currently edited by Ike Mathur

More articles in Journal of Banking & Finance from Elsevier
Series data maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2017-09-29
Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:9:p:2575-2592