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Long-term bank balance sheet management: Estimation and simulation of risk-factors

John Birge and Pedro Júdice

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013, vol. 37, issue 12, 4711-4720

Abstract: We propose a dynamic framework which encompasses the main risks in balance sheets of banks in an integrated fashion. Our contributions are fourfold: (1) solving a simple one-period model that describes the optimal bank policy under credit risk; (2) estimating the long-term stochastic processes underlying the risk factors in the balance sheet, taking into account the credit and interest rate cycles; (3) simulating several scenarios for interest rates and charge-offs; and (4) describing the equations that govern the evolution of the balance sheet in the long run. The models that we use address momentum and the interaction between different rates. Our results enable simulation of bank balance sheets over time given a bank’s lending strategy and provides a basis for an optimization model to determine bank asset–liability management strategy endogenously.

Keywords: Balance sheet management; Asset–liability management; Long-term risk; Interest rate risk; Credit risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:4711-4720

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.040

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