# Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach

*Francis DiTraglia* and
*Jeffrey R. Gerlach*

*Journal of Banking & Finance*, 2013, vol. 37, issue 2, 305-323

**Abstract:**
We show theoretically that lower tail dependence (χ), a measure of the probability that a portfolio will suffer large losses given that the market does, contains important information for risk-averse investors. We then estimate χ for a sample of DJIA stocks and show that it differs systematically from other risk measures including variance, semi-variance, skewness, kurtosis, beta, and coskewness. In out-of-sample tests, portfolios constructed to have low values of χ outperform the market index, the mean return of the stocks in our sample, and portfolios with high values of χ. Our results indicate that χ is conceptually important for risk-averse investors, differs substantially from other risk measures, and provides useful information for portfolio selection.

**Keywords:** Portfolio selection; Extreme value theory; Tail dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)

**JEL-codes:** C58 G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)

**Date:** 2013

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**Persistent link:** https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:2:p:305-323

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