Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests
Alejandro Bernales () and
Massimo Guidolin ()
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014, vol. 46, issue C, 326-342
We examine whether the dynamics of the implied volatility surface of individual equity options contains exploitable predictability patterns. Predictability in implied volatilities is expected due to the learning behavior of agents in option markets. In particular, we explore the possibility that the dynamics of the implied volatility surface of individual stocks may be associated with movements in the volatility surface of S&P 500 index options. We present evidence of strong predictable features in the cross-section of equity options and of dynamic linkages between the volatility surfaces of equity and S&P 500 index options. Moreover, time-variation in stock option volatility surfaces is best predicted by incorporating information from the dynamics in the surface of S&P 500 options. We analyze the economic value of such dynamic patterns using strategies that trade straddle and delta-hedged portfolios, and find that before transaction costs such strategies produce abnormal risk-adjusted returns.
Keywords: Equity options; Index options; Implied volatility surface; Predictability; Trading strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 G13 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Working Paper: Can We Forecast the Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics of Equity Options? Predictability and Economic Value Tests (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:326-342
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Banking & Finance is currently edited by Ike Mathur
More articles in Journal of Banking & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().