Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?
Ekaterini Panopoulou () and
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2015, vol. 56, issue C, 103-122
While the majority of the predictability literature has been devoted to the predictability of traditional asset classes, the literature on the predictability of hedge fund returns is quite scanty. We focus on assessing the out-of-sample predictability of hedge fund strategies by employing an extensive list of predictors. Aiming at reducing uncertainty risk associated with a single predictor model, we first engage into combining the individual forecasts. We consider various combining methods ranging from simple averaging schemes to more sophisticated ones, such as discounting forecast errors, cluster combining and principal components combining. Our second approach combines information of the predictors and applies kitchen sink, bootstrap aggregating (bagging), lasso, ridge and elastic net specifications. Our statistical and economic evaluation findings point to the superiority of simple combination methods. We also provide evidence on the use of hedge fund return forecasts for hedge fund risk measurement and portfolio allocation. Dynamically constructing portfolios based on the combination forecasts of hedge funds returns leads to considerably improved portfolio performance.
Keywords: Forecast combination; Combining information; Prediction; Hedge funds; Portfolio construction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:103-122
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Banking & Finance is currently edited by Ike Mathur
More articles in Journal of Banking & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().