The relation between sovereign credit rating revisions and economic growth
Chong-Chuo Chang and
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2016, vol. 64, issue C, 90-100
A country’s economic growth exhibits a significant response to sovereign rating changes: a one-notch upgrade (downgrade) causes an increase (decline) of about 0.6% (0.3%) in re-rated countries’ five-year average annual growth rates. The results hold after accounting for other determinants of economic growth and potential endogeneity problems, and are robust to the use of quarterly data. Changes in country rating affect economic growth via the interest-rate and capital-flow channels: narrower sovereign bond yield spreads and increased capital inflows are associated with upgrades, which stimulate re-rated countries’ economic performance, and the converse holds for downgrades.
Keywords: Economic growth; Sovereign credit rating revision; Capital flows (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F34 F62 G24 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:64:y:2016:i:c:p:90-100
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Banking & Finance is currently edited by Ike Mathur
More articles in Journal of Banking & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().