Flight-to-quality, economic fundamentals, and stock returns

Aditya Kaul and Nuri Volkan Kayacetin ()

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2017, vol. 80, issue C, 162-175

Abstract: We find that the order flow differential (OFD), a flight-to-quality measure constructed as the difference between large- and small-cap stock order flows, strongly and negatively forecasts output growth and interest rates in the U.S. The predictive ability of OFD for future macroeconomic fundamentals is robust to the inclusion of return factors and business cycle predictors, and it is thus a state variable candidate in the spirit of Merton (1973). Consistent with this view, we document that OFD commands a statistically significant negative risk premium in cross-sectional asset pricing tests.

Keywords: Order flow; Flight-to-quality; Economic conditions; Hedging; Liquidity; SMB (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037842661730081X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:162-175

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.003

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Banking & Finance is currently edited by Ike Mathur

More articles in Journal of Banking & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().