 The political transfer problem: How cross-border financial windfalls affect democracy and civil warFaisal Z. Ahmed, Daniel Schwab and Eric Werker Journal of Comparative Economics, 2021, vol. 49, issue 2, 313-339 Abstract: Following a rise in the price of oil in the 1970s, a number of developing countries received a significant boost in foreign transfers as oil producers could not absorb all of their new rents domestically. When those transfers ended, some recipients of these transfers eventually democratized as part of the ”Third Wave” while others languished as violent autocracies. This raises a puzzle: how can declines in external transfers foster democratization in some cases, but heighten political violence in others? We develop a formal model to reconcile this tension and demonstrate that autocratic incumbents can become more repressive with higher levels of transfers and either experience civil conflict or democratize at lower levels of transfers. We characterize these dynamics as a ”political transfer problem” and then use case studies and econometric evidence to argue that the largest windfall of the 20th century, the period from 1973–85 during which oil prices were at all-time highs, and its aftermath, produced political dynamics consistent with our model. Keywords: Foreign transfers; Democracy; Civil war; Political economy; Formal model; Resource curse (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:49:y:2021:i:2:p:313-339 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2020.10.004 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Comparative Economics is currently edited by D. Berkowitz and G. Roland More articles in Journal of Comparative Economics from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.