Education, desired fertility, and HIV/AIDS: Evidence from China’s compulsory schooling law

Xiaoyan Lei, Guangjun Shen, Ang Sun, Wang Xiang and Huili Zhang

Journal of Comparative Economics, 2026, vol. 54, issue 1, 164-193

Abstract: We investigate the impact of education on stemming human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) infection. Using China’s Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that mass education significantly enhances knowledge about HIV/AIDS, and that each additional year of exposure to the CSL reduces HIV/AIDS contraction and mortality rates by 6.51 % and 2.15 %, respectively. Further analyses suggest that these reductions are primarily driven by a reduction in blood-borne transmission. In contrast, the effect of CSL on sexual transmission is ambiguous. Drawing on detailed data on individuals’ sexual behaviors and attitudes toward sex and fertility, we find that the CSL significantly lowers women’s desired fertility without affecting that of men. Consequently, women become the more active contraception seekers within households, leading to a substitution of female-controlled contraceptive methods for condoms. This behavioral shift may increase the risk of sexually transmitted infections, potentially offsetting or even muting the CSL’s positive effect on reducing the sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS.

Keywords: Education; Fertility; Intra-household decision-making; HIV/AIDS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D13 I21 J13 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:54:y:2026:i:1:p:164-193

DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.09.002

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