Probability weighting, stop-loss and the disposition effect
David Hobson and
Alex S.L. Tse
Journal of Economic Theory, 2018, vol. 178, issue C, 360-397
In this paper we study a continuous-time, optimal stopping model of an asset sale with prospect theory preferences under pre-commitment. We show for a wide range of value and probability weighting functions, including those of Tversky and Kahneman (1992), that the optimal prospect takes the form of a stop-loss threshold and a distribution over gains. It is skewed with a long right tail. This is consistent with both the widespread use of stop-loss strategies in financial markets, and recent experimental evidence. Moreover, our model with probability weighting in tandem with the S-shaped value function makes predictions for the disposition effect which match in magnitude that calculated by Odean (1998).
Keywords: Prospect theory; Behavioral economics; Disposition effect; Investor trading behavior; Probability weighting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 G19 G39 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:178:y:2018:i:c:p:360-397
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Economic Theory is currently edited by A. Lizzeri and K. Shell
More articles in Journal of Economic Theory from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().