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The term structure of returns: Facts and theory

Jules van Binsbergen () and Ralph S.J. Koijen

Journal of Financial Economics, 2017, vol. 124, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: We summarize and extend the new literature on the term structure of equity. Short-term equity claims, or dividend strips, have higher average returns and Sharpe ratios than the aggregate stock market. The returns on short-term dividend claims are risky as measured by volatility, but safe as measured by market beta. These facts are hard to reconcile with traditional macro-finance models and we provide an overview of new models that can reproduce some of these facts. We relate our evidence on dividend strips to facts about other asset classes such as nominal and corporate bonds, volatility, and housing. We discuss the broader economic implications of our findings by linking the term structure of returns to real economic decisions such as hiring and investment. We conclude with an outline of empirical and theoretical extensions that we consider interesting avenues for future research.

Date: 2017
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Working Paper: The Term Structure of Returns: Facts and Theory (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: The Term Structure of Returns: Facts and Theory (2015) Downloads
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:124:y:2017:i:1:p:1-21