Informed trading in government bond markets

Robert Czech, Shiyang Huang, Dong Lou and Tianyu Wang

Journal of Financial Economics, 2021, vol. 142, issue 3, 1253-1274

Abstract: Using comprehensive administrative data from the UK, we examine trading by different investor types in government bond markets. Our sample covers virtually all secondary market trading in gilts and contains detailed information on each transaction, including the identities of both counterparties. We find that hedge funds’ daily trading positively forecasts gilt returns in the following one to five days, which is then fully reversed in the following month. A part of this short-term return predictability is due to hedge funds’ ability to predict other investors’ future demand. Mutual fund trading also positively predicts gilt returns, but over a longer horizon of one to two months. This return pattern does not revert in the following year and is partly due to mutual funds’ ability to forecast changes in short-term interest rates.

Keywords: Government bonds; Informed trading; Return predictability; Asset managers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Working Paper: Informed trading in government bond markets (2021)
Working Paper: Informed trading in government bond markets (2021)
Working Paper: Informed trading in government bond markets (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:3:p:1253-1274

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.049

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