Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy

Nina Karnaukh and Petra Vokata

Journal of Financial Economics, 2022, vol. 146, issue 1, 55-70

Abstract: We find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals’ revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock (positive change in bond yields), a negative GDP growth revision predicts an expansionary policy news shock (negative change in bond yields). Failing to account for this predictability biases the estimates of monetary policy effects on the economy. First, the Fed’s information effect dissipates as the truly unpredictable policy news shock does not affect professionals’ beliefs about the economy. Second, net policy shock has a more negative impact on actual future GDP than the raw policy shock.

Keywords: Monetary policy news; Growth forecasts; Federal funds futures; Predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:1:p:55-70

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.07.001

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