Face masks, public policies and slowing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada

Alexander Karaivanov, Shih En Lu, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Cong Chen and Stephanie Pamplona

Journal of Health Economics, 2021, vol. 78, issue C

Abstract: We estimate the impact of indoor face mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in Canada. Mask mandate introduction was staggered from mid-June to mid-August 2020 in the 34 public health regions in Ontario, Canada’s largest province by population. Using this variation, we find that mask mandates are associated with a 22 percent weekly reduction in new COVID-19 cases, relative to the trend in absence of mandate. Province-level data provide corroborating evidence. We control for mobility behaviour using Google geo-location data and for lagged case totals and case growth as information variables. Our analysis of additional survey data shows that mask mandates led to an increase of about 27 percentage points in self-reported mask wearing in public. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that adopting a nationwide mask mandate in June could have reduced the total number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Canada by over 50,000 over the period July–November 2020. Jointly, our results indicate that mandating mask wearing in indoor public places can be a powerful policy tool to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Face mask mandates; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Counterfactuals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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Working Paper: Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada (2020)
Working Paper: Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s0167629621000606

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102475

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