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Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?

Chao Ma

Journal of Housing Economics, 2020, vol. 49, issue C

Abstract: Many studies documented that actual asset-price movements exhibit momentum and reversion to fundamentals. We study real estate markets and find that households’ subjective house-price expectations capture momentum but not reversion to fundamentals. Moreover, if house prices are currently deviated upwards (downwards) from their long-run relationship with economic fundamentals, households will have even higher (lower) expectations of future appreciations. Additional empirical results suggest that the more likely reason is that households do not have accurate perception of the fundamental value (fundamental-misperception conjecture) than that they do not believe that mispricing will be quickly corrected by the market (mispricing-persistence conjecture).

Keywords: Asset-Price Expectations; House-Price Expectations; Irrational Expectations; Momentum; Reversion to Fundamentals; House-Price Dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E7 G17 G4 R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:49:y:2020:i:c:s1051137720300243

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101687

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