Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities

William Larson and Jessica Shui

Journal of Housing Economics, 2022, vol. 58, issue PA

Abstract: We construct land values for each parcel in Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona, from 2000 through 2018 using a novel public dataset containing the universe of land sales and parcel records in the county. We then compare residential land values constructed using two classes of source data, vacant land sales and land under existing structures. Between 2012 and 2018, estimated land values for developed parcels are, on average, 14% higher when estimated using vacant land due to plattage effects and other unobserved factors. Growth rates are similar, facilitating the use of vacant land price indices to trace valuations over time from an accurate base year valuation. Dynamics between prices of Maricopa County land and housing suggest hypothetical land value tax revenues are more pro-cyclical than property tax revenues, with elasticities of 3.3 and 2.3 with respect to national house prices, respectively. By 2018, houses had recovered 96% of pre-crisis (2007) values, but land had only recovered 66%. These findings demonstrate a source of risk of dependence on public revenues from land value taxes versus a base-period revenue-neutral property tax.

Keywords: Land prices; Price gradient; Land value taxation; Price dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R14 R21 R32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Land Valuation using Public Records and Kriging: Implications for Land versus Property Taxation in Cities (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:58:y:2022:i:pa:s1051137722000432

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101871

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