Metal and energy price uncertainties and the global economy

Natalia Ponomareva, Jeffrey Sheen and Ben Zhe Wang

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2024, vol. 143, issue C

Abstract: We construct novel monthly measures of energy and metal price uncertainty based on the one-year-ahead price forecast dispersion for twenty commodities. Using a simple VAR model, we show both metal and energy price uncertainty shocks are contractionary for the world economy, and these results are largely robust to a battery of alternative specifications. However, our results highlight the differences between metal and energy price uncertainties, both in terms of their propagation channels, as well as the driving forces behind them. Counterfactual analysis reveals that metal price uncertainty has a mainly direct impact on global economic activity while the impact of energy price uncertainty is indirectly mediated through global financial and economic uncertainties. Variance decomposition shows fluctuations of both metal and energy price uncertainties are mainly self-driven, however global financial uncertainty plays a significant role in driving metal price uncertainty in the short run while global economic activity uncertainty plays a significant role in driving energy price uncertainty in the medium to long run.

Keywords: Energy price uncertainty; Metal price uncertainty; Forecast disagreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D80 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000317

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103044

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