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Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency misalignments

Cécile Couharde (cecile.couharde@parisnanterre.fr), Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon (valerie.mignon@parisnanterre.fr) and Florian Morvillier

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2025, vol. 151, issue C

Abstract: This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in developing countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation.

Keywords: Cross-quantile regressions; Economic growth; Multilateral currency misalignments; Undervaluations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 F31 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0261560624002249

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103237

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