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The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement

Jelle Brouwer, Richard Paap and Jean-Marie Viaene

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2008, vol. 27, issue 2, 188-208

Abstract: This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced panel data that combine bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries. The results reveal a complementarity between trade and investment and a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depend on the sign of bilateral trade balances. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5% for Poland and 30% for Hungary.

Date: 2008
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261-5606(07)00138-6
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Working Paper: The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement (2007) Downloads
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