Investing under model uncertainty: Decision based evaluation of exchange rate forecasts in the US, UK and Japan

Anthony Garratt and Kevin Lee ()

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, vol. 29, issue 3, 403-422

Abstract: We evaluate the forecast performance of a range of theory-based and atheoretical models explaining exchange rates in the US, UK and Japan. A decision-making environment is fully described for an investor who optimally allocates portfolio shares to domestic and foreign assets. Methods necessary to compute and use forecasts in this context are proposed, including the means of combining density forecasts to deal with model uncertainty. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation exercise is described using both statistical criteria and decision-based criteria. The theory-based models are found to perform relatively well when their forecasts are judged by their economic value.

Keywords: Exchange; rates; Investment; strategies; Forecast; evaluation; Model; averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:403-422

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