Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies

Jaqueson Galimberti and Marcelo Moura ()

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013, vol. 32, issue C, 1008-1031

Abstract: This study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by Taylor rules. We fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free-floating exchange rates and inflation targeting beginning in the mid-1990s. Because of the limited span of the time series, which is a common obstacle to studying emerging economies, we employ panel data regressions to produce more efficient estimates. Following the recent literature, we use a robust set of out-of-sample statistics, incorporating bootstrapped and asymptotic distributions for the Diebold-Mariano statistic, the Clark and West statistic and Theil's U ratio. By evaluating different specifications for the Taylor rule exchange rate model based on their out-of-sample performances, we find that a present-value forward-looking specification shows strong evidence of exchange rate predictability.

Keywords: Taylor rule exchange rate model; Forecasting; Emerging economies; Panel data; Bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F37 F41 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Working Paper: Taylor Rules and Exchange Rate Predictability in Emerging Economies (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:1008-1031

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.08.006

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