Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

Rabah Arezki, Kaddour Hadri, Prakash Loungani and Yao Rao

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, vol. 42, issue C, 208-223

Abstract: In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Keywords: Panel data; Stationary tests; Cross-sectional dependence; Terms of trade; Commodity prices; Prebish-Singer hypothesis; Volatility; Multiple structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (43)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560613001149
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks (2013)
Working Paper: Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:208-223

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.012

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Money and Finance is currently edited by J. R. Lothian

More articles in Journal of International Money and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().