Spurious long memory, uncommon breaks and the implied–realized volatility puzzle

Neil Kellard (), Ying Jiang and Mark Wohar ()

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, vol. 56, issue C, 36-54

Abstract: One of the puzzles in international finance is the frequent finding that implied volatility is a biased predictor of realized volatility. However, given asset price volatility is often characterized as possessing long memory, the recent literature has shown that allowing for long-range dependence removes this bias. Of course, the appearance of long memory can be generated by the presence of structural breaks. This paper discusses the effect of structural breaks on the implied–realized volatility relation. Simulations show that if significant structural breaks are omitted, testing can spuriously show the typical patterns of fractional cointegration found in the literature. Next, empirical results show that foreign exchange implied and realized volatility contains structural breaks. The breaks in the implied series never closely anticipate or co-occur with those of the realized series, suggesting that the market has no ability to forecast structural change. When breaks are accounted for in the bi-variate framework, the point estimate of the slope parameter falls and the null of unbiasedness can be rejected. Allowing for structural breaks suggests that the implied–realized volatility puzzle might not be solved after all.

Keywords: Implied–realized relation; Unbiasedness; Uncommon structural change; Foreign exchange; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C22 F31 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560615000649
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:36-54

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.04.003

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Money and Finance is currently edited by J. R. Lothian

More articles in Journal of International Money and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().