Re-examining the middle-income trap hypothesis (MITH): What to reject and what to revive?
Xuehui Han and
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, vol. 73, issue PA, 41-61
Do middle-income countries face difficult challenges producing consistent growth? Using transition matrix analysis, we can easily reject any unconditional notion of a “middle-income trap” in the data. However, countries have different fundamentals and policies. Using a non-parametric classification technique, we search for variables that separate fast- and slow-growing countries. For middle-income countries, a relatively large working age population, sex ratio imbalance, macroeconomic stability, and financial development appear to be the key discriminatory variables. We do the same exercise for low-income countries. This framework yields conditions under which countries in the low- and middle-income ranges move forward or backward, or are trapped.
Keywords: Economic growth; Growth determinants; Middle-income trap; Infrastructure; Conditional inference regression tree (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C30 F01 F60 O11 O43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Working Paper: Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive? (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:73:y:2017:i:pa:p:41-61
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of International Money and Finance is currently edited by J. R. Lothian
More articles in Journal of International Money and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().