Economics at your fingertips  

Conditioning carry trades: Less risk, more return

Arjen Mulder and Ben Tims

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018, vol. 85, issue C, 1-19

Abstract: Prior studies show that extreme interest rate differentials (IRDs) and high foreign exchange rate (FX) volatility have substantial explanatory power for the validity of UIP. We show that these contemporaneous drivers also have predictive power by implementing a conditional currency carry trade (CT) strategy that excludes regimes for which UIP is likely to hold. Conditioning high FX volatility only, or on both FX volatility and extreme IRDs outperforms the base-case unconditional CT strategy in virtually any of the settings analyzed. Conditioning on very large IRDs only shows mixed findings. Our strategy works best for smaller CT portfolios.

Keywords: Uncovered interest parity; Extreme sampling; Carry trade; Foreign exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Money and Finance is currently edited by J. R. Lothian

More articles in Journal of International Money and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-11-16
Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:85:y:2018:i:c:p:1-19