Monetary policy and the yield curve at zero interest

Hibiki Ichiue () and Yoichi Ueno

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2015, vol. 38, issue C, 1-12

Abstract: In contrast to affine term structure models, Black’s (1995) model of interest rates as options has properties suitable to examine the yield curve when the short-term interest rate is near zero. We estimate a Black’s model with Japan’s data to extract market expectations about duration of zero interest. We find that expectations about duration have substantially varied, which contradicts with the assumption utilized in the literature. We also find a tight link between expectations about duration and survey measures of inflation expectations, which appears to be attributable to the Bank of Japan’s commitment conditional on inflation.

Keywords: Shadow rate; Zero lower bound; Quantitative easing; Japan; First hitting time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158315000131
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:38:y:2015:i:c:p:1-12

DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2015.04.001

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies is currently edited by Takeo Hoshi

More articles in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().