'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries

Ralf Fendel, Michael Frenkel and Jan-Christoph Rülke

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2011, vol. 33, issue 2, 224-232

Abstract: This paper addresses the question of whether financial market participants apply the framework of Taylor-type rules in their forecasts for the G7 countries. To this end, we use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll providing us a unique data set of inflation rate, interest rate and growth rate forecasts for the time period 1989-2008. We provide empirical evidence that financial market participants incorporate Taylor-type rules in their forecasts. Thus, the paper uses ex-ante data for the estimation of Taylor rules. This is a new approach, because so far only ex-post (revised) or real-time data have been applied.

Keywords: Taylor; rule; Expectation; formation; Monetary; policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:224-232

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