Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?

Michael Frenkel, Jan-Christoph Rülke and Lilli Zimmermann

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, vol. 37, issue C, 217-229

Abstract: In this paper we use data from the Consensus Economics forecast poll to explore the strategic behavior of private sector forecasters with respect to forecasts published by the IMF and the OECD. We focus on four key macroeconomic variables for the G7 countries to analyze whether private sector forecasters herd towards the projections published by these international organizations. Our empirical results show that an anti-herding strategy of private sector forecasters is prevalent for the G7 countries, i.e., they intentionally place their forecasts away from the forecasts published by the IMF and the OECD. In addition, we find that the strategic behavior of private sector forecasters lasts roughly 3months.

Keywords: Private sector forecasts; Herding; International organizations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E02 E27 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:217-229

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.03.002

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