Economics at your fingertips  

One money, one cycle? The EMU experience

Martin Gächter () and Aleksandra Riedl ()

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014, vol. 42, issue C, 141-155

Abstract: We examine whether the introduction of the euro had a significant impact on the synchronization of business cycles among members of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Empirical evidence on this relationship is rare so far and suffers from methodical weaknesses, such as the absence of time variability, which is crucial for addressing this issue. Using a synchronization index that is constructed on a year-by-year basis (1993–2011), we uncover a strong and robust empirical finding: the adoption of the euro has significantly increased the correlation of member countries’ business cycles above and beyond the effect of higher trade integration. Thus, our results substantially strengthen the conclusion by Frankel and Rose (1998), i.e. a country is more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union ex post rather than ex ante. Remarkably, however, this reasoning is even verified when controlling for the effect of increased trade linkages implied by entering a currency union.

Keywords: Business cycles; EMU; Endogeneity; Optimum currency areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E02 E32 E58 F15 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: One Money, One Cycle? The EMU Experience (2013) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.07.006

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Douglas McMillin and Theodore Palivos

More articles in Journal of Macroeconomics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2020-04-04
Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:141-155