The response of capital goods shipments to demand over the business cycle

Jeremy Nalewaik and Eugénio Pinto

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, vol. 43, issue C, 62-80

Abstract: We study how producers of capital goods set shipments in response to fluctuations in new orders. We find that shipments respond more to orders when new orders fall below a certain level relative to shipments, usually after orders plunge in recessions. This cyclical change in producers’ behavior accounts for a considerable portion of the downturn in equipment investment in the 2001 and 2008–9 recessions. A simple model of production to order suggests that heightened persistence in new orders growth may explain the greater responsiveness of shipments, as may increases in the producers’ target delivery lag.

Keywords: Shipments; Orders; Business investment; Business cycles; Threshold cointegration; Markov-switching models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E22 E23 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070414001104
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:62-80

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.09.003

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Douglas McMillin and Theodore Palivos

More articles in Journal of Macroeconomics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().