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Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?

Alexander Jung ()

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, vol. 49, issue C, 18-32

Abstract: This paper examines whether the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has provided markets with systematic clues about its future policy rates. We explain the future fed funds rate changes using Ordered Probit models (sample 1996–2008). We find that timely FOMC meeting minutes have provided assurance to markets about the most likely path of future interest rates. Though, their release did not cause markets to fundamentally revise their expectations on future policy decisions. In line with Riboni and Ruge-Murcia (2014), the paper also finds that the internal skew derived from the Reserve Bank Presidents’ interest rate preferences of the FOMC contained systematic information about fed funds rate changes at forthcoming meetings.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Communication; FOMC minutes; Predictability; Ordered Probit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C34 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:49:y:2016:i:c:p:18-32