Inflation dynamics and adaptive expectations in an estimated DSGE model

Paolo Gelain, Nikolay Iskrev, Kevin Lansing and Caterina Mendicino

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2019, vol. 59, issue C, 258-277

Abstract: We estimate a “hybrid expectations” version of the Smets and Wouters (2007) model in which a subset of agents employ simple moving-average forecast rules that place a significant weight on the most recent data observation. We show that the overall fit is improved relative to an otherwise similar version in which all agents have fully rational expectations. In-sample and out-of-sample analyses show the superiority of the hybrid expectations model in generating an expected inflation series that more closely tracks expected inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Bayesian estimation; Local identification; Adaptive expectations; Survey of Professional Forecasters' expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E32 E70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:258-277

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.12.002

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