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Financial market effects of FOMC projections

Cody Couture

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2021, vol. 67, issue C

Abstract: I examine the impact of the forecasts released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the Summary of Economic Projections over the period of April 2011 through March 2019. I find that changes in the median FOMC federal funds rate forecast did impact asset prices, but forecasts of output and inflation did not have any effect, which may be surprising based on the literature regarding the “Fed information effect” channel. Further, the dispersion in the federal funds rate forecast does not affect asset prices though it does impact the degree of uncertainty regarding future monetary policy. Finally, I find that most of forward guidance can be summarized through the change in the median federal funds rate forecast for the end of the following year.

Keywords: FOMC projections; Forward guidance; Asset prices; Dot plots (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103279

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s0164070420302019