Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries

Edward F. Buffie, Christopher Adam, Luis-Felipe Zanna and Kangni Kpodar

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2023, vol. 75, issue C

Abstract: We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analysis suggests.

Keywords: Covid-19; Public investment; Growth; Debt; Fiscal policy; Human capital; Labor markets; Welfare (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 F34 H54 H63 I25 I31 O43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: Loss-of-Learning and the Post-Covid Recovery in Low-Income Countries (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:75:y:2023:i:c:s0164070422000854

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492

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