Minimax and pointwise sequential changepoint detection and identification for general stochastic models

Serguei M. Pergamenchtchikov, Alexander G. Tartakovsky and Valentin S. Spivak

Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 2022, vol. 190, issue C

Abstract: This paper considers the problem of joint change detection and identification assuming multiple composite post-change hypotheses. We propose a multihypothesis changepoint detection-identification procedure that controls the probabilities of false alarm and wrong identification. We show that the proposed procedure is asymptotically minimax and pointwise optimal, minimizing moments of the detection delay as probabilities of false alarm and wrong identification approach zero. The asymptotic optimality properties hold for general stochastic models with dependent and nonidentically distributed observations. We illustrate general results for detection-identification of changes in multistream Markov ergodic processes. We consider several examples, including an application to rapid detection-identification of COVID-19 in Italy. Our proposed sequential algorithm allows much faster detection of COVID-19 than standard methods.

Keywords: Asymptotic optimality; Changepoint detection; Composite post-change hypotheses; Detection and localization of epidemics; Quickest change detection-identification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2022.104977

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