 Finance company failure in New Zealand during 2006–2009: Predictable failures?Ella Douglas, David Lont () and Tom Scott Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, 2014, vol. 10, issue 3, 277-295 Abstract: Over 31 finance companies (non-bank deposit takers) failed in New Zealand over the 2006–2009 period. With an estimated loss of over NZ$3 billion, there was public outcry and a parliamentary inquiry into the causes of the failures, but few have asked if this was a predictable event. We find that failed finance companies have lower capital adequacy, inferior asset quality, more loans falling due, higher earnings and lower cash flows. Furthermore, failed companies have a longer audit lag and some trustees appear to have a greater percentage of failed firms than others. Our logistic model can successfully classify failure one year before for 88.7% of companies. Our logistic model (neural network) can also correctly classify up to 87.5% (83.3%) of a holdout sample. Our results are of interest to regulators and practitioners, as we show that publicly available data could distinguish between failed and non-failed finance companies. Keywords: Finance company failure; Failure prediction; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:10:y:2014:i:3:p:277-295 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcae.2014.10.002 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics is currently edited by Agnes C.S. Cheng, P. Clarkson, F.A. Gul, Zoltan Matolcsy, Dan Simunic and Ben Srinidhi More articles in Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics from Elsevier |
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