Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts

Wei Li and Florentina Paraschiv

Journal of Commodity Markets, 2022, vol. 25, issue C

Abstract: With the increasing integration of wind and photovoltaic power in the whole European power system, there is a longing for detecting how to trade energy in the ever-changing intraday market from electric power industries. Intraday trading becomes even more relevant in the wake of the European Cross-Border Intraday (XBID) project, which aims at integrating electricity trading across Europe. Therefore, optimal trading strategies to address forecast fluctuations in renewables output are growingly required to be designed. In this study, we model, simulate and predict the evolution of wind and PV infeed forecasting errors over eight days preceding the start of a given quarter-hourly delivery period and updated in 15-min steps. We test comparatively the performance of several stochastic and probabilistic models, and recommend their complementary use, depending on the frequency in which forecast values are adjusted. Since ex-ante updated forecasting errors of renewables infeed are usually not available to researchers, simulations based on our proposed models break the ground for further applications to intraday pricing and optimization.

Keywords: Wind/photovoltaic forecasting errors; Intraday market; Gaussian mixture model (GMM); Stochastic models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851321000234
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:25:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000234

DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100189

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Commodity Markets is currently edited by Marcel Prokopczuk, Betty Simkins and Sjur Westgaard

More articles in Journal of Commodity Markets from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().