 Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting modelXiaoli Etienne, Sara Farhangdoost, Linwood Hoffman and Brian Adam Journal of Commodity Markets, 2023, vol. 30, issue C Abstract: An alternative futures-based procedure is developed to forecast the season-average farm price for U.S. corn, an under-researched price forecast. The new method performs similarly or better than two widely-watched season-average price forecasts, i.e., the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and the Hoffman futures-based forecasts, at the beginning of the post-harvest season and just as well as those forecasts in most of the other months during the marketing year. We attribute the robust performance of the proposed forecast to its ability to use heterogeneous coefficients for futures and cash prices depending on the underlying market conditions. Improved performance of the proposed forecasts is especially noticeable when the market is more volatile. Overall, the method derived in this study complements the existing forecasts and provides valuable information for decision-makers. Keywords: Corn; Season-average farm price; Forecast; Futures prices; Cash prices; Marketing weights (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:30:y:2023:i:c:s2405851323000235 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100333 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Commodity Markets is currently edited by Marcel Prokopczuk, Betty Simkins and Sjur Westgaard More articles in Journal of Commodity Markets from Elsevier |
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