Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Tatchawan Kanitpong

The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2019, vol. 20, issue C

Abstract: Assessing the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows since 2017 has taken a new direction by engaging in asymmetry analysis. In this paper we add to this emerging literature by estimating both linear and nonlinear ARDL export and import demand models for each of the 45 industries that trade between Thailand and China. Estimates of the linear models revealed that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on 22 Thai exporting and 32 Thai importing industries. However, the nonlinear model revealed that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run asymmetric effects on the trade flows of almost all industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 50% of the industries.

Keywords: Thailand-China trade; 45 industries; Exchange rate uncertainty; Asymmetric analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joecas:v:20:y:2019:i:c:s1703494919300696

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00130

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