Asymmetric effects between economic development and fertility: What do 140 years of data tell us?

Georgios Bampinas () and Georgios Mavropoulos

The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2024, vol. 30, issue C

Abstract: This study investigates the historical nexus between economic development and fertility in eight highly advanced European economies between 1870 and 2014. We employ the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), which enables us to examine the impact of the different levels of economic development on fertility. We also consider the role of mortality and marriage to gain a more comprehensive view of the relationship. Our results from the linear and panel quantile models suggest an inverse J-shaped pattern between economic development and fertility. However, the inverse J-shape vanishes when time effects are considered in the quantile regression model, while the impact of mortality and marriage on fertility is reinforced. To further elaborate our findings, we also employ a nonparametric panel estimation method with time-varying coefficients. Our results also suggest that periods characterized by a positive economic development effect on fertility rarely coincide with an upward movement in the observed fertility trajectory. We infer that economic development per se did not drive either the historical baby-boom period or the recent fertility rebound.

Keywords: Fertility; Economic development; Panel quantile; Nonparametric analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C2 J1 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494924000173
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joecas:v:30:y:2024:i:c:s1703494924000173

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00368

Access Statistics for this article

The Journal of Economic Asymmetries is currently edited by A.G. Malliaris

More articles in The Journal of Economic Asymmetries from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().