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Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise

Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Wilbert van der Klaauw (), Maarten van Rooij (), Federica Teppa and Klaas de Vos ()

Journal of Economic Psychology, 2017, vol. 59, issue C, 45-58

Abstract: Several national surveys aim to elicit consumers’ inflation expectations. Median expectations tend to track objective inflation estimates over time, although responses display large dispersion. Medians also tend to differ between surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. Using a nationally representative Dutch sample, we evaluate the importance of three survey design features in explaining observed differences: mode (face-to-face vs. web), question wording (‘prices in general’ vs. ‘inflation’), and the explicit opportunity to revise responses. We examine effects on item non-responses, revisions, reported inflation expectations and their deviation from the CPI inflation rate. We discuss implications of our findings for survey design.

Keywords: Consumer surveys; Inflation expectations; Mode effects; Question wording (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Working Paper: Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise (2016) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:59:y:2017:i:c:p:45-58

DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2017.01.011

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