An exact dynamic programming approach to segmented isotonic regression

Víctor Bucarey, Martine Labbé, Juan M. Morales and Salvador Pineda

Omega, 2021, vol. 105, issue C

Abstract: This paper proposes a polynomial-time algorithm to construct the monotone stepwise curve that minimizes the sum of squared errors with respect to a given cloud of data points. The fitted curve is also constrained on the maximum number of steps it can be composed of and on the minimum step length. Our algorithm relies on dynamic programming and is built on the basis that said curve-fitting task can be tackled as a shortest-path type of problem. Numerical results on synthetic and realistic data sets reveal that our algorithm is able to provide the globally optimal monotone stepwise curve fit for samples with thousands of data points in less than a few hours. Furthermore, the algorithm gives a certificate on the optimality gap of any incumbent solution it generates. From a practical standpoint, this piece of research is motivated by the roll-out of smart grids and the increasing role played by the small flexible consumption of electricity in the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources into current power systems. Within this context, our algorithm constitutes an useful tool to generate bidding curves for a pool of small flexible consumers to partake in wholesale electricity markets.

Keywords: Cardinality-constrained shortest path problem; Isotonic regression; Segmented regression; Consumers’ price-response; Inverse optimization; Data clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048321001250
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jomega:v:105:y:2021:i:c:s0305048321001250

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2021.102516

Access Statistics for this article

Omega is currently edited by B. Lev

More articles in Omega from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu (repec@elsevier.com).