A case study in econometric forecasting for alcoholic drinks

M Duffy

Omega, 1982, vol. 10, issue 6, 597-611

Abstract: This paper reports on the estimation by econometric methods of demand equations for beer, spirits and wine, taken separately, using quarterly data over the period 1963 to 1978. The estimated demand equations are used to forecast demand over the 1979(1) to 1980(3) period for which actual data has recently become available, thereby providing a test, albeit not a very extensive one, of the short-term forecasting accuracy of the fitted equations conditional upon the values of the exogenous variables being known with certainty in the forecast period. The equations are also tested for stability. Finally, the paper considers the longer-term growth prospects for beer, spirits and wine consumption in the UK as the economy moves out of the current recession.

Date: 1982
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