The risks! and benefits? of risk-benefit analysis

Stuart E Dreyfus

Omega, 1984, vol. 12, issue 4, 335-340

Abstract: Careful observation of the skill acquisition process in management, policy analysis and elsewhere shows a progression from analytical understanding in terms of decomposed parts towards holistic understanding based on intuitively perceived similarity with previously experienced situations. Since experts rarely think in terms of decomposed elements of problems, experienced decision-makers represent poor sources for the non-objective components of risk--benefit analyses such as probabilities, utilities and trade-offs. But without quality input from the expert practitioner, such analyses, carried out in the name of rationality and scientific clarity, may well sacrifice what is much more precious: experience-based intuitive understanding, wisdom and good judgment.

Date: 1984
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