Assessing and improving judgemental probability forecasts

Peter Ayton and George Wright

Omega, 1987, vol. 15, issue 3, 191-196

Abstract: This paper discusses three characteristics of subjective probabilities, their consistency, coherence and calibration and shows how they are inter-related. We review research that has investigated these characteristics and evaluate methods that have been developed for the improvement of judgemental probabilistic forecasting.

Date: 1987
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