Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison

Nr Sanders

Omega, 1992, vol. 20, issue 3, 353-364

Abstract: This study compares the performance of judgmental and statistical forecasts, as well as the judgmental revision of statistically derived forecasts, for artificial time series with a number of controlled characteristics. Judgment is found to produce inferior and more biased forecasts overall. However, results suggest that judgmental revision may have a benefit for some low noise series, particularly when statistical techniques are applied "blindly" to the time series.

Keywords: judgmental; forecasting; judgmental; revision; forecasting; accuracy; forecast; bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1992
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)

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